Economy

Consumer prices rose 0.1% in July and 3.4% over the year, a second month of easing. But gasoline is still 25% above last summer and rent keeps climbing.

The NFIB optimism index rose 2.4 points to 99.8 in July, beating forecasts. But 36% of owners cannot fill open roles and wage pressure is building.

Economists estimate U.S. recession probability between 10% and 40% as energy costs stack on top of a year of trade policy volatility. The Iran conflict, now in its fifth week, is compounding existing tariff pressures on U.S. small businesses through surging oil prices, disrupted shipping lanes, and rising input costs, adding a second simultaneous cost […]